حل تمامی مسائل فصل هفتم کتاب زنجیره تامین چوپرا (ویرایش سوم)

حل المسائل فصل هفتم کتاب زنجیره تامین چوپرا (ویرایش سوم)، فایل ورد + اکسل

عنوان فصل:

Demand Forecasting in a Supply Chain

نمونه پاسخ تمرین هفت فصل هفتم:

Worksheet 7-4 evaluates demand forecasts for the ABC corporation using moving average, simple exponential smoothing, Holt’s model, and Winter’s model.  Note that solver is utilized for simple exponential smoothing, Holt’s and Winter’s models in determining the optimal values for the smoothing constants by minimizing the MAD subject to the constraint that the smoothing constant values are < 1.

It is evident that Winter’s model is preferable in this case with the lowest MAD value, i.e., lowest forecast error.  It is also important to note that  Winter’s model allows for the incorporation of level, trend and seasonality, which are evident in the demand data for this case.

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